It's that dead week between Christmas and New Years where many of the websites I follow tend to post their predictions for the New Year. Before reading any of THEIR predictions, I decided to try my luck at creating a list of my own. No, I do not possess psychic capabilities. I'm really not even that smart. But I do have a blog and that makes me qualified.
So here, in no particular order of importance, are my predictions for 2012:
Sudden Apocalypse
The world will NOT end in December as the Mayan calendar predicted.
Slow Apocolypse
2012 will be the year that global climate change really rears its ugly head. The extent of Arctic sea ice in the summer of 2012 will reach its lowest level ever. Heat waves in Europe and North America will kill thousands, and a continuing drought in parts of the south will cause crop failures and localized economic pain. Despite all of this, the climate change deniers will keep on denying.
Politics
Since the Iowa Caucuses are going to be held in 2012, I am predicting the following order of finish among the GOP candidates. 1) Ron Paul 2) Mitt Romney 2) Newt Gingrich 4) Rick Santorum. Perry and Bachmann will drop out because they have no money and no prayer. Santorum will move to South Carolina and hope for the best, but drop out after that. Huntsman will drop out after New Hampshire. Paul and Romney will stay in the race throughout the spring, with Gingrich dropping out at some point.
Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination, but his support in the fall will be hurt significantly by an independent run by crazy man Donald Trump. The Donald will only win around 6% of the popular vote, but he will take away just enough conservative votes in key states that it will be the margin that President Obama needs to win re-election.
The election will be primarily about the economy, in particular the deficit and spending reform. The battle lines will be familiar...Romney will argue for lower taxes and spending, Obama will call for higher taxes on the wealthy and strategic investments in certain areas but lower overall spending. Neither of the major party candidates will dare to tackle the third rail of American politics...entitlement reform. However, Mr. Trump will and that will account for a strong showing early in the campaign. Trump will say what no one else wants to...that saving Social Security will require higher contributions and lower benefits, especially for higher income retirees. While his willingness to talk candidly about the issue will bring Trump's support early in the campaign into the 20% range, it will drop off after Labor Day as voters figure out he's an insane megalomaniac.
The biggest headline from the 2012 presidential election will not be the winner, but the overwhelming role of big money. The so-called "Super PAC's" that were enabled by the Supreme Court's ruling in the Citizen's United case. SO much money will be spent by these unaccountable Super PAC's that the American public may finally get sick enough to do something about it. Progress will be made on efforts to pass a Constitutional amendment to overhaul campaign financing.
Anti-incumbent sentiment will mean a larger than normal number of challengers will win House and Senate seats, but the overall balance of power will not change significantly. After the election, gridlock will still prevail.
Bob Jennings will be elected to the Iowa Senate in District 2.
Technology
Apple will release the iPhone 5 with 4G support in November. An iPad 3 will also be released during the year with enhanced display and some other goodies, but Apple will NOT release a smaller iPad to compete with Kindle Fire and Nook Tablet. Instead, the will announce lower pricing for the iPad 2 that will make it more attractive to tablet shoppers on a budget. iPad 3 will remain at $499; iPad 2 will be priced at $299.
SOPA will NOT pass because it's an idea that's SO bad, even the current Congress will not support it. Tech companies will use Super PAC's to throw money into races to try to defeat members of Congress who supported SOPA.
Economy
The economy will grow slowly in 2012, with unemployment falling below 8% by the end of the year. Inflation will continue to be low and housing sales will start to increase again.
The deficit will continue to grow, and gridlock in Congress during an election year will mean that very little is accomplished. President Obama will introduce several policy initiatives during the spring that are designed to bolster his support among the liberal wing of the Democratic party while appealing to the middle, but they won't gain any traction in the House where stopping Obama is the only focus.
OK, I may or may not have the energy for more predictions later. But for now, that's what my crystal ball reveals.
No comments:
Post a Comment